Record of the Press · 2012–Present
Released to the public · 31 OCT 2026File TBL-0016
BAD CALL

Krugman: Markets Would 'Never' Recover From Trump

09 NOV 2016 · The New York Times
Screenshot of the page as published at nytimes.com (via Wayback Machine)
EXHIBIT A — Page capture from nytimes.com (via Wayback Machine). Click to open the source.

■ The claim

Writing on election night as stock futures plunged, NYT columnist Paul Krugman said the first-pass answer to when markets would recover was never, and that the world was probably facing a global recession with no end in sight.

■ What actually happened

The sell-off reversed within hours. The Dow closed at a record high on November 10, 2016, and posted its best week in five years. On November 11, Krugman wrote on his NYT blog that he was retracting his call, saying he had succumbed to the temptation to predict immediate collapse.

■ The proof

Market records in the days after the election and Krugman's own blog post retracting the call.

■ Original reporting

■ Corrections, findings & records

■ Wayback Machine copies

Stories sometimes get edited after publication. These links open the Internet Archive's earliest snapshot of each original.

Who it helped: DemocratsPredicted economic ruin under Trump.

■ Grade

BAD CALL: A confident prediction or dismissal that turned out wrong. Not a lie, but on the record. How we grade →