Bad Call

NBC/Marist Had Orman Up 10 in Kansas; Roberts Won by 11

An NBC News/Marist poll showed independent Greg Orman leading Republican Sen. Pat Roberts 48% to 38% among likely Kansas voters.

First reported Oct 5, 2014 · NBC News, Marist Poll

Screenshot of the original report as published — Screenshot of the report as published: nbcnews.com. Tap to open the source.

Who it helped: Democrats

The poll fueled a narrative that Republicans could lose a deep-red Senate seat.

What was reported

An NBC News/Marist poll showed independent Greg Orman leading Republican Sen. Pat Roberts 48% to 38% among likely Kansas voters.

What actually happened

A late-October NBC/Marist poll still showed Orman narrowly ahead, 45% to 44%. Roberts won 53.1% to 42.5%. FiveThirtyEight's post-election review found 2014 Senate polls overstated Democratic-aligned candidates by about four points on average, with Kansas among the missed calls.

The proof

Official Kansas results show Roberts winning by about 10.6 points.

The receipt. Copy this and paste it anywhere:

NBC/Marist Had Orman Up 10 in Kansas; Roberts Won by 11 — Bad Call. Official Kansas results show Roberts winning by about 10.6 points. Full file: https://www.thepropagandafiles.com/case/nbc-marist-kansas-orman-plus-10/

Original reporting

NBC News: Kansas surprise, Orman leads Roberts by 10 in NBC/Marist pollhttps://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/kansas-surprise-orman-leads-roberts-10-nbc-marist-poll-n217911
Marist Poll, Oct. 26, 2014: Orman and Roberts neck and neckhttps://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/1026-kansas-orman-and-roberts-neck-and-neck-in-u-s-senate-race-davis-and-brownback-closely-matched-in-governors-contest/

Corrections, findings & records

Ballotpedia: 2014 Kansas Senate resultshttps://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections_in_Kansas,_2014
FiveThirtyEight (archived): The polls were skewed toward Democratshttps://webarchive.library.unt.edu/dentonfracking/20141114000743/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats

Archived copies

Stories get edited after publication. These open the Internet Archive's earliest saved copy of each original.

Archived copy: NBC News: Kansas surprise, Orman leads Roberts by 10 in NBC/Marist pollhttps://web.archive.org/web/2/https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/kansas-surprise-orman-leads-roberts-10-nbc-marist-poll-n217911
Archived copy: Marist Poll, Oct. 26, 2014: Orman and Roberts neck and neckhttps://web.archive.org/web/2/https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/1026-kansas-orman-and-roberts-neck-and-neck-in-u-s-senate-race-davis-and-brownback-closely-matched-in-governors-contest/