4 files on the record. 2 helped Democrats, 1 helped Republicans, 1 helped neither.
Final 2024 forecasts called the presidential race essentially a 50-50 toss-up. FiveThirtyEight gave Harris about a 50 percent chance and Trump about 49 percent, and Nate Silver's final model also landed at roughly 50-50 with a slight Harris edge.
Ahead of the 2022 midterms, Fox News hosts including Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham and Maria Bartiromo, plus commentators like Marc Thiessen, predicted a Republican wave or even a 'red tsunami.' RealClearPolitics projected Republicans would reach 54 Senate seats, and FiveThirtyEight's final forecast favored Republicans to win both chambers.
Polling averages showed Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders in Michigan's Democratic primary by around 20 points, and FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave her better than a 99 percent chance of winning.
In July 2015, HuffPost announced it would cover Trump's campaign in its Entertainment section rather than Politics, calling it a sideshow. In November 2015, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver told the media to stop freaking out about Trump's poll leads, putting his nomination chances at well under 20 percent.
