Saturday, October 31, 2026Every claim sourced. Every source linked.
The record of what the American press got wrong, and who it helped
The Big Lies › 2016 › File PF-0067
Bad Call

Forecasters give Clinton a 99% lock on Michigan; Sanders wins

Polling averages showed Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders in Michigan's Democratic primary by around 20 points, and FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave her better than a 99 percent chance of winning.

First reported Mar 8, 2016 · FiveThirtyEight, Major pollsters
Screenshot of the original report as published
Screenshot of the report as published: npr.org. Tap to open the source.
Who it helped: Neither party

A methodological miss that overstated the establishment front-runner rather than favoring either party.

What was reported

Polling averages showed Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders in Michigan's Democratic primary by around 20 points, and FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave her better than a 99 percent chance of winning.

What actually happened

Every major Michigan poll had Clinton ahead by double digits and none showed Sanders leading. Sanders won the primary on March 8, 2016, in what analysts called one of the largest primary polling misses on record. The miss foreshadowed the state's polling failure in the general election eight months later.

The proof

The certified Michigan primary result, a Sanders win, against a polling average of roughly Clinton +20 and a 99%+ forecast.

The receipt. Copy this and paste it anywhere:

Forecasters give Clinton a 99% lock on Michigan; Sanders wins — Bad Call. The certified Michigan primary result, a Sanders win, against a polling average of roughly Clinton +20 and a 99%+ forecast. Full file: https://www.thepropagandafiles.com/case/michigan-primary-polling-miss-2016/

Original reporting

Corrections, findings & records

Archived copies

Stories get edited after publication. These open the Internet Archive's earliest saved copy of each original.

Get the daily file.