The 2026 Midterms:
What They Said Before the Vote

2026-04-11Silver Bulletin: 'AI polls are fake polls'Silver Bulletin (Eli McKown-Dawson, with editor's note by Nate Silver) argued synthetic 'polls' using LLM agents as respondents collect no new data and are models, not polls. Named Aaru (whose 2024 model gave Harris 50.5%), Electric Twin, and Public Sentiment Institute (which 'boosted' 373 real respondents with 114 AI agents; Silver Bulletin excludes its polls). Noted Axios reported an Aaru finding in March 2026 without noting respondents were LLMs. (Silver Bulletin)

2026-06Wedgewood Polls begins releasing surveysWedgewood Polls launched in June 2026 and published surveys on competitive races in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Kansas, Maine and elsewhere. A late-June poll showed Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow in single digits. In July it released a Texas survey showing Talarico leading Paxton among Hispanics 64-30. (The National News Desk (Sinclair))

2026-07McMorrow suspends Michigan Senate bidMallory McMorrow suspended her Senate campaign in July 2026; she later said a Wedgewood poll plus a Mitchell Research poll were a 'one-two punch' that 'killed' her campaign by depressing donations and volunteers. (Al Jazeera does not say the Mitchell poll was fabricated.) Abdul El-Sayed's campaign had cited Wedgewood polls, as reported by Fox News. (Al Jazeera)

2026-08-17Median Strategies admits bogus polls (first 2026 fake-poll scandal)Median Strategies acknowledged it had faked results as a 'short-term social experiment' and closed. Its polls covered the Los Angeles mayoral race (a poll showing Karen Bass leading Raman by double digits) and the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary. Reported by the Los Angeles Times. (Los Angeles Times (via Pew Research Center link); details via National News Desk and AFP)

2026-08-27Pew: no easy fix for bogus respondents in opt-in pollsPew Research Center methods report on 'bogus respondents' (possibly AI-enabled bot farms or people seeking incentives) in online opt-in polls, particularly distorting estimates for Hispanic and young adults. (Pew Research Center)

2026-08-30Trump attacks 'fake polls', calls for FCC action against NBC's WelkerIn late August Trump criticized 'fake polls' on social media and on Aug 30 said NBC Meet the Press moderator Kristen Welker should face 'rebuke or punishment' from the FCC. (TV Technology)

2026-09-06FCC Chair Carr floats guidance on airing 'fake polls'In a Fox News interview, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr said the agency may issue guidance reminding broadcasters of obligations about 'not airing fake polls,' particularly polls used to suppress voters. Democratic Commissioner Anna Gomez responded on X: 'Do not let a sad and desperate attempt to punish accurate reporting become an excuse for censorship.' (TV Technology)

2026-09-30Pew: synthetic (AI) samples are not reliable substitutes for surveysPew Research Center data-labs study found AI-modeled 'synthetic surveys' do not reliably replicate human public opinion. (Pew Research Center)

2026-10-15Wedgewood shares raw data with FiftyPlusOneWedgewood provided raw survey data to FiftyPlusOne, which found inconsistencies and technical identifiers indicating fabrication. (FiftyPlusOne)

2026-10-19Trump: 'I think it's fake polls'On Monday (Oct 19) Trump said 'I think it's fake polls,' as a Reuters/Ipsos poll put his approval at a record-low 31%. (Reuters (via KFGO))

2026-10-20Wedgewood admits fabricating data; FiftyPlusOne publishes investigationAfter FiftyPlusOne sought comment, Wedgewood posted on X admitting 'most' of its data was fabricated, calling it an 'experimental project' to expose weak oversight; it later deleted its account. FiftyPlusOne (Mary Radcliffe, G. Elliott Morris, Cooper Burton) published its findings, naming Jack Sims and Andrew Prater, and noting Wedgewood had crowd-funded polls (a Nebraska GoFundMe raised $500 of $5,000). Morris said the 'social experiment' framing covered up fraud; FiftyPlusOne rejected Wedgewood's claim that aggregators failed to vet it. (FiftyPlusOne)

2026-10-21Outlets and aggregators that carried Wedgewood remove pollsThe New York Times poll tracker had listed 15 Wedgewood surveys (June-October); an editors' note said all were removed and that they were not in its presidential approval or national congressional averages. Decision Desk HQ removed 17 Wedgewood polls, saying seat totals and chamber probabilities were unchanged. FiftyPlusOne and VoteHub had also added Wedgewood to their aggregators; MS NOW cited it on air; the 'Political Polls' aggregator cited it in the Wisconsin governor race. (The National News Desk; AFP (NYT editors' note))

2026-10-21Democratic reactions to WedgewoodMcMorrow: 'Polling is broken.' Democratic strategist Jennifer Holdsworth said donors used the poll to pull back funding. Former Harris adviser Mike Nellis called Wedgewood's operators 'absolute scumbags' who should be prosecuted. (The National News Desk)

2026-10-21FCC Chair Carr warns networks over 'entirely fake polls and suppression polls'Carr posted on X that networks 'could violate their regulatory obligations' by airing 'entirely fake polls and suppression polls,' citing 'a significant surge' ahead of the midterms and invoking news distortion and broadcast hoax rules. Reuters noted he named no specific polls or networks. Commissioner Anna Gomez said pollsters who intentionally mislead should be held accountable but broadcasters reporting polls in good faith should not be punished when a poll is wrong. (Reuters (via KFGO))

2026-10-22Trump: NYT 'got caught'Trump posted on Truth Social that the New York Times 'got caught' using a firm that admitted its numbers were fake, called the paper's content 'ARTIFICIAL,' and said the case strengthened his $15bn defamation lawsuit against the Times. (AFP (via Kuwait Times); also Al Jazeera)

2026-10-22FiftyPlusOne drops SoCal StrategiesFiftyPlusOne said it would stop collecting SoCal Strategies' data after an investigation cast doubt on its authenticity; the firm could not be reached and its website and social accounts appeared offline. (AFP (via Kuwait Times))

2026-10-23AAPOR warns on AI-assisted fake pollstersAmerican Association for Public Opinion Research president Mary Losch warned AI tools make fake pollsters harder to spot and said fraud should not be conflated with legitimate election polling. (AFP (via Kuwait Times))

2026-10-23Gomez letter urges NAB to push back on CarrCommissioner Anna Gomez wrote to NAB CEO Curtis LeGeyt: 'Absent that level of clear evidence, this commission has no authority to act... Reporting the results of a poll this administration happens to dislike does not come close to meeting those standards.' (TheWrap)

2026-10-29Pew: 2026 midterms 'uniquely difficult' for pollsPew president Michael Dimock (first in The Hill, Oct 14) cited the fewest incumbents on the ballot since 1992, record pre-election House turnover, mid-cycle redistricting, bogus opt-in respondents, synthetic surveys, and polls shared that are 'entirely fabricated.' (Pew Research Center)

2026-10-30Washington Post questions its own Kansas Senate pollWashington Post / SSPG Kansas poll (Oct 22-26, 801 LV) showed Hamilton (D) 52%, Marshall (R) 43% (D+9; alternate version 54-44, D+10). The Post's write-up, headlined that Democrats wanted to talk and Republicans 'not so much,' questioned its own result (differential response). Other late polls: CNN/SSRS D+4, Emerson D+3, RedBox Marshall +1. (The Washington Post (figures via PollCheck; characterization via Yahoo News))

2026-10-31University of Washington: story reframed by partisan mediaUW's Center for an Informed Public found the Wedgewood story spread from polling experts to influential commentators and partisan accounts, and that right-wing media quickly framed it as proof midterm polls, especially those favoring Democrats, cannot be trusted. No US law explicitly criminalizes fake polls. (Al Jazeera)