Wisconsin Recall Exit Polls Called It a Toss-Up; Walker Won by 7
Early exit-poll reporting on election night portrayed Scott Walker's recall race as too close to call, with voters split roughly evenly between Walker and Tom Barrett.
The toss-up framing understated Republican Scott Walker's strength and buoyed hopes for the Democratic-backed recall.
What was reported
Early exit-poll reporting on election night portrayed Scott Walker's recall race as too close to call, with voters split roughly evenly between Walker and Tom Barrett.
What actually happened
AP's exit-poll story, based on Edison Research data, said voters were dividing about evenly. Walker won by roughly seven points (about 1.33 million votes to 1.16 million). Post-election analysis noted the early exit numbers had swung from a slight Walker edge to a 50-50 race before being reweighted, partly because absentee voting, which favored Republicans, was underestimated.
The proof
Certified vote totals show a decisive Walker win, and NBC's post-election analysis acknowledged the early exit numbers had shown a 50-50 race before reweighting.
The receipt. Copy this and paste it anywhere:
Wisconsin Recall Exit Polls Called It a Toss-Up; Walker Won by 7 — Bad Call. Certified vote totals show a decisive Walker win, and NBC's post-election analysis acknowledged the early exit numbers had shown a 50-50 race before reweighting. Full file: https://www.thepropagandafiles.com/case/wisconsin-recall-exit-poll-tie-2012/
Original reporting
- AP via Spokesman-Review: Exit polls show tight race in Wisconsinhttps://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/jun/05/exit-polls-show-tight-race-wisconsin
Corrections, findings & records
- NBC News First Thoughts: Walker wins (exit poll swings explained)https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/first-thoughts-walker-wins-labor-loses-flna816057
- Election Law Blog: exit polls showed 50-50 race vs. convincing Walker winhttps://electionlawblog.org/2012/election-administrators-prayer-not-answered-in-wisconsin/
Archived copies
Stories get edited after publication. These open the Internet Archive's earliest saved copy of each original.
- Archived copy: AP via Spokesman-Review: Exit polls show tight race in Wisconsinhttps://web.archive.org/web/2/https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/jun/05/exit-polls-show-tight-race-wisconsin