Governor · 2026

Alaska

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs. Bernadette Wilson (R) · Incumbent: open (R)

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026

Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

Average	Margin	As of	Miss
PollCheck	D+6.6	2026-11-01	Pending

Latest polls

Pollster	For	Fielded	Sample	Margin	Miss
Alaska Survey Research	Alaska Survey Research	Oct 23-25	1,068 LV	D+6	Pending
Alaska Survey Research	Alaska Survey Research	Oct 15-18	1,568 LV	D+10	Pending
Data for Progress (D)	Data for Progress	Oct 8-16	629 LV	D+6	Pending
Alaska Survey Research	Alaska Survey Research	Oct 1-3	1,512 LV	D+8	Pending
Siena	The New York Times	Sep 24-Oct 1	504 LV	D+4	Pending
Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D)	AARP	Sep 8-11	800 LV	D+10	Pending

Forecasts and odds

Forecaster	Forecast	As of
Decision Desk HQ	D 67% to win (Lean D)	2026-10-30
PollCheck	Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 82% to win; Likely D	2026-11-01
Silver Bulletin	Safe D (flip)	2026-09-19

Race ratings

Rater	Rating	As of
Cook Political Report	Toss-up	2026-09-17
Inside Elections	Toss-up	2026-10-01
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D (flip)	2026-10-06
Decision Desk HQ	Lean D	2026-10-30

Ranked-choice general with four candidates from the Aug 18 top-four primary: Kreiss-Tomkins (D), Bernadette Wilson (R), Dave Bronson (R), Treg Taylor (R). Poll margins are final-round RCV head-to-heads (Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Wilson) as used by PollCheck. Inside Elections Oct 1 change Lean R -> Toss-up per 270toWin note.