The Propaganda FilesArizona
Katie Hobbs (D) vs. Andy Biggs (R) · Incumbent: D
Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026
Result: pending
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.
Polling averages
| Average | Margin | As of | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| PollCheck | D+7.1 | 2026-10-31 | Pending |
| RealClearPolitics | D+10.8 | 2026-09-10 | Pending |
| Silver Bulletin | D+7.8 | 2026-09-10 | Pending |
| Decision Desk HQ | D+6.9 | 2026-09-10 | Pending |
Latest polls
| Pollster | For | Fielded | Sample | Margin | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse | Elijah Norton campaign (R treasurer candidate) | Oct 28-29 | 500 LV | D+5 | Pending |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Noble Predictive Insights | Oct 26-28 | 511 LV | D+6 | Pending |
| HighGround, Inc. | HighGround, Inc. | Oct 21-25 | 400 LV | D+13 | Pending |
| RedBox Research | A Fight Worth Having | Oct 20-23 | 2,686 LV | D+5 | Pending |
| GrayHouse | Elijah Norton campaign (R treasurer candidate) | Oct 18-20 | 550 LV | D+6 | Pending |
| Wick | Wick | Oct 3-6 | 1,513 LV | D+6 | Pending |
Forecasts and odds
| Forecaster | Forecast | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ | D 75% to win (Likely D) | 2026-10-30 |
| PollCheck | Hobbs (D) 88% to win; Likely D | 2026-10-31 |
| Silver Bulletin | Likely D | 2026-08-25 |
Race ratings
| Rater | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | 2026-09-17 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D | 2026-09-17 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | 2026-09-03 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Likely D | 2026-10-30 |