The Propaganda FilesFlorida
David Jolly (D) vs. Byron Donalds (R) · Incumbent: open (R)
Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026
Result: pending
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.
Polling averages
| Average | Margin | As of | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| PollCheck | R+4.1 | 2026-10-31 | Pending |
Latest polls
| Pollster | For | Fielded | Sample | Margin | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | ActiVote | Oct 20-31 | 400 LV | R+4.6 | Pending |
| Stetson University | Stetson University | Oct 26-30 | 852 RV | R+6 | Pending |
| InsiderAdvantage | InsiderAdvantage | Oct 28-29 | 1,200 LV | R+4 | Pending |
| Political Matrix / The Listener Group | Political Matrix / The Listener Group | Oct 26-28 | 500 LV | R+1 | Pending |
| St. Pete Polls | Florida Politics | Oct 25-27 | 916 LV | R+2 | Pending |
| Siena | The New York Times | Oct 19-25 | 813 LV | R+4 | Pending |
Forecasts and odds
| Forecaster | Forecast | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ | R 64% to win (Lean R) | 2026-10-30 |
| PollCheck | Donalds (R) 90% to win; Likely R | 2026-10-31 |
Race ratings
| Rater | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean R | 2026-10-01 |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | 2026-09-04 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | 2026-09-03 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Lean R | 2026-10-30 |