The Propaganda FilesIowa
Rob Sand (D) vs. Zach Lahn (R) · Incumbent: open (R)
Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026
Result: pending
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.
Polling averages
| Average | Margin | As of | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| PollCheck | D+7.6 | 2026-10-31 | Pending |
| RealClearPolitics | D+8.4 | 2026-10-09 | Pending |
| Silver Bulletin | D+8.6 | 2026-10-09 | Pending |
| Decision Desk HQ | D+9.2 | 2026-10-09 | Pending |
| FiftyPlusOne | D+8.6 | 2026-10-09 | Pending |
| 270toWin | D+8.0 | 2026-10-09 | Pending |
Latest polls
| Pollster | For | Fielded | Sample | Margin | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | co/efficient | Oct 28 | 1,020 LV | D+5 | Pending |
| Echelon Insights | NetChoice | Oct 16-23 | 403 LV | D+4 | Pending |
| co/efficient | co/efficient | Oct 15-19 | 678 LV | D+4 | Pending |
| GS Strategy Group (R) / New River Strategies (D) | Cook Political Report | Oct 9-13 | 602 LV | D+11 | Pending |
| National Public Affairs | National Public Affairs | Oct 8-12 | 678 LV | D+5 | Pending |
| Marist University | Marist | Oct 8-11 | LV (n not listed) | D+7 | Pending |
Forecasts and odds
| Forecaster | Forecast | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ | D 70% to win (Lean D) | 2026-10-30 |
| PollCheck | Sand (D) 92% to win; Likely D | 2026-10-31 |
| Silver Bulletin | Likely D (flip) | 2026-10-10 |
Race ratings
| Rater | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D (flip) | 2026-10-01 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D (flip) | 2026-10-01 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D (flip) | 2026-10-06 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Lean D | 2026-10-30 |