The Propaganda FilesKansas
Cindy Holscher (D) vs. Ty Masterson (R) · Incumbent: open (D)
Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026
Result: pending
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.
Polling averages
| Average | Margin | As of | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| PollCheck | R+2.7 | 2026-11-01 | Pending |
Latest polls
| Pollster | For | Fielded | Sample | Margin | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Emerson College | Oct 26-28 | 800 LV | R+4 | Pending |
| SSPG | The Washington Post | Oct 22-26 | 801 LV | D+6 | Pending |
| SSRS | CNN | Oct 20-26 | 838 LV | R+5 | Pending |
| Global Strategy Group | Holscher campaign | Oct 18-21 | 600 LV | Tie | Pending |
| YouGov | YouGov | Sep 24-Oct 4 | 2,255 LV | R+3 | Pending |
| Siena | The New York Times | Sep 22-30 | 605 LV | R+5 | Pending |
Forecasts and odds
| Forecaster | Forecast | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ | R 65% to win (Lean R) | 2026-10-30 |
| PollCheck | Masterson (R) 75% to win; Lean R | 2026-11-01 |
Race ratings
| Rater | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean R (flip) | 2026-08-27 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt R (flip) | 2026-09-04 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R (flip) | 2026-09-03 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Lean R | 2026-10-30 |