Governor · 2026

New Hampshire

Cinde Warmington (D) vs. Kelly Ayotte (R) · Incumbent: R

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026

Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

Average	Margin	As of	Miss
PollCheck	R+8.8	2026-10-30	Pending

Latest polls

Pollster	For	Fielded	Sample	Margin	Miss
Rasmussen Reports	Rasmussen Reports	Oct 20-23	970 LV	R+10	Pending
Saint Anselm College	Saint Anselm College	Oct 19-20	1,672 LV	R+8	Pending
YouGov	UMass Lowell	Oct 2-19	600 LV	R+6	Pending
National Public Affairs	National Public Affairs	Oct 8-12	600 LV	R+16	Pending
YouGov	YouGov	Sep 28-Oct 5	1,520 LV	R+9	Pending
Saint Anselm College	AARP	Sep 28-29	1,042 LV	R+7	Pending

Forecasts and odds

Forecaster	Forecast	As of
Decision Desk HQ	R 71% to win (Lean R)	2026-10-30
PollCheck	Ayotte (R) 96% to win; Safe R	2026-10-30

Race ratings

Rater	Rating	As of
Cook Political Report	Likely R	2026-08-27
Inside Elections	Solid R	2026-09-04
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely R	2026-09-03
Decision Desk HQ	Lean R	2026-10-30

Borderline: included because UMass Lowell/YouGov (Oct 2-19) was R+6 and UNH (Sep 17-21, 1,418 LV) was R+4 (https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2004&context=survey_center_polls); DDHQ rates Lean R. Jon Kiper (Community First) on ballot. Two-year term. Warmington listed as D nominee by PollCheck (Sept primary).