Governor · 2026

New Mexico

Deb Haaland (D) vs. Gregg Hull (R) · Incumbent: open (D)

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026

Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

Average	Margin	As of	Miss
PollCheck	D+6.8	2026-10-31	Pending

Pollster	For	Fielded	Sample	Margin	Miss
Research & Polling Inc.	Albuquerque Journal	Oct 1-9	1,125 LV	D+7	Pending
SurveyUSA	KOB-TV	Sep 25-30	567 LV	D+6	Pending
Research & Polling Inc.	Albuquerque Journal	Aug 21-28	516 LV	D+6	Pending
BSP Research (D)	BSP Research	Jul 22-Aug 7	800 RV	D+17	Pending
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	Gregg Hull campaign	Jul 13-15	400 LV	D+1	Pending

Forecaster	Forecast	As of
Decision Desk HQ	D 87% to win (Likely D)	2026-10-30
PollCheck	Haaland (D) 80% to win; Lean D	2026-10-31

Borderline: included as competitive because SurveyUSA/KOB (Sep 25-30) was D+6. Michelle Lujan Grisham term-limited.