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Midterms 2026
Governor · 2026

Nevada

Aaron Ford (D) vs. Joe Lombardo (R) · Incumbent: R

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026
Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

AverageMarginAs ofMiss
PollCheckD+1.52026-10-31Pending
RealClearPoliticsTie2026-10-06Pending
Silver BulletinR+0.82026-10-06Pending
Decision Desk HQR+2.42026-10-06Pending
FiftyPlusOneR+0.42026-10-06Pending

Latest polls

PollsterForFieldedSampleMarginMiss
Noble Predictive InsightsNoble Predictive InsightsOct 26-28487 LVTiePending
Hart ResearchA More Affordable Nevada (DGA-aligned)Oct 20-25950 LVD+4Pending
RedBox ResearchA Fight Worth HavingOct 20-231,407 LVD+3Pending
Global Strategy GroupAaron Ford campaignOct 8-13700 LVR+1Pending
Concord Public Opinion PartnersEducation Reform Now AdvocacySep 26-30565 LVR+1Pending
Noble Predictive InsightsNoble Predictive InsightsSep 22-26708 LVR+2Pending

Forecasts and odds

ForecasterForecastAs of
Decision Desk HQToss Up; favored side 57% (page text does not identify the party)2026-10-30
PollCheckFord (D) 54% to win; Toss-up2026-10-31
Silver BulletinToss-up2026-10-11

Race ratings

RaterRatingAs of
Cook Political ReportToss-up2026-10-01
Inside ElectionsTilt R2026-10-01
Sabato's Crystal BallToss-up2026-10-06
Decision Desk HQToss Up2026-10-30

Multiple independents on ballot incl. Danielle Ford. Nevada ballots include 'None of these candidates'. Emerson (Sep 5-8, 680 LV) had D+2: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-poll-ford-and-lombardo/

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