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Midterms 2026
Governor · 2026

New York

Kathy Hochul (D) vs. Bruce Blakeman (R) · Incumbent: D

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026
Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

AverageMarginAs ofMiss
PollCheckD+12.62026-10-31Pending

Latest polls

PollsterForFieldedSampleMarginMiss
Marist UniversityMaristOct 22-25LV (n not listed)D+11Pending
ActiVoteActiVoteOct 1-23400 LVD+18Pending
Siena College Research InstituteSiena CollegeOct 19-22807 LVD+14Pending
Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityOct 15-191,167 LVD+14Pending
OnMessage Inc.Saritha Komatireddy campaign (R AG nominee), reported by New York PostOct 1-61,000 LVD+4Pending

Forecasts and odds

ForecasterForecastAs of
Decision Desk HQD 92% to win (Likely D)2026-10-30
PollCheckHochul (D) 98% to win; Safe D2026-10-31

Race ratings

RaterRatingAs of
Cook Political ReportSolid D2026-08-27
Inside ElectionsLikely D2026-09-04
Sabato's Crystal BallSafe D2026-09-03
Decision Desk HQLikely D2026-10-30

Borderline: included as competitive by poll criterion only because of a Republican internal poll (OnMessage, D+4). All independent/media polls show double-digit Hochul leads.

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