The Propaganda FilesOhio
Amy Acton (D) vs. Vivek Ramaswamy (R) · Incumbent: open (R)
Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026
Result: pending
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.
Polling averages
| Average | Margin | As of | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| PollCheck | D+3.0 | 2026-10-31 | Pending |
| RealClearPolitics | D+4.3 | 2026-10-16 | Pending |
| Silver Bulletin | D+4.0 | 2026-10-16 | Pending |
| Decision Desk HQ | D+4.7 | 2026-10-16 | Pending |
| FiftyPlusOne | D+4.7 | 2026-10-16 | Pending |
| 270toWin | D+5.5 | 2026-10-04 | Pending |
Latest polls
| Pollster | For | Fielded | Sample | Margin | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | ActiVote | Oct 16-31 | 400 LV | D+1.6 | Pending |
| Suffolk University | Suffolk University | Oct 21-26 | 500 LV | D+4 | Pending |
| RedBox Research | A Fight Worth Having | Oct 20-23 | 2,998 LV | D+4 | Pending |
| Echelon Insights | NetChoice | Oct 16-23 | 508 LV | R+2 | Pending |
| Verasight | VoteHub | Oct 1-20 | 531 LV | D+1 | Pending |
| Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Co. (R) | Fox News | Oct 15-19 | 1,592 LV | D+2 | Pending |
Forecasts and odds
| Forecaster | Forecast | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ | D 61% to win (Lean D) | 2026-10-30 |
| PollCheck | Acton (D) 67% to win; Lean D | 2026-10-31 |
| Silver Bulletin | Lean D (flip) | 2026-10-11 |
Race ratings
| Rater | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up | 2026-10-01 |
| Inside Elections | Toss-up | 2026-10-01 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | 2026-10-06 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Lean D | 2026-10-30 |