The Propaganda FilesPennsylvania
Josh Shapiro (D) vs. Stacy Garrity (R) · Incumbent: D
Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026
Result: pending
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.
Polling averages
| Average | Margin | As of | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| PollCheck | D+20.7 | 2026-10-30 | Pending |
Latest polls
Forecasts and odds
| Forecaster | Forecast | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ | D 96% to win (Safe D) | 2026-10-30 |
Race ratings
| Rater | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid D | 2026-08-27 |
| Inside Elections | Solid D | 2026-09-04 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | 2026-09-03 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Safe D | 2026-10-30 |