Governor · 2026

South Carolina

Jermaine Johnson (D) vs. Alan Wilson (R) · Incumbent: open (R)

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026

Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

Average	Margin	As of	Miss
PollCheck	R+9.8	2026-10-31	Pending

Pollster	For	Fielded	Sample	Margin	Miss
Siena	The New York Times	Oct 19-26	707 LV	R+7	Pending
Targoz Media Research	South Carolina Policy Council	Oct 16-25	895 LV	R+10	Pending
The Citadel	The Citadel	Oct 14-25	890 LV	R+11	Pending
The Citadel	The Citadel	Oct 14-25	1,009 RV	R+4	Pending
Trafalgar Group	Trafalgar Group	Oct 16-18	1,095 LV	R+16	Pending
National Public Affairs	FITSNews	Oct 13-16	604 LV	R+10	Pending

Forecaster	Forecast	As of
Decision Desk HQ	R 74% to win (Lean R)	2026-10-30
PollCheck	Wilson (R) 98% to win; Safe R	2026-10-31

Borderline: included because The Citadel RV version (Oct 14-25) was R+4 (LV version R+11) and DDHQ rates Lean R. Henry McMaster term-limited.