Governor · 2026

Tennessee

Jerri Green (D) vs. David Hatley (I) vs. Marsha Blackburn (R) · Incumbent: open (R)

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026

Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

Average	Margin	As of	Miss
PollCheck	R+8.8	2026-10-31	Pending

Latest polls

Pollster	For	Fielded	Sample	Margin	Miss
GOTV Polling	David Hatley campaign	Oct 25-26	1,196 (type not listed)	R+5	Pending
Spry Strategies	Spry Strategies	Oct 10-15	635 LV	R+12	Pending
TargetSmart	The Progress Fund	Sep 9-12	600 LV	R+9	Pending
Targoz Market Research	Beacon Center of Tennessee	Aug 15-26	601 LV	R+21	Pending

Forecasts and odds

Forecaster	Forecast	As of
Decision Desk HQ	R 93% to win (Likely R)	2026-10-30
PollCheck	Blackburn (R) 93% to win; Likely R	2026-10-31

Race ratings

Rater	Rating	As of
Cook Political Report	Solid R	2026-08-27
Inside Elections	Solid R	2026-09-04
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	2026-09-03
Decision Desk HQ	Likely R	2026-10-30

Included as competitive by poll criterion only: a poll sponsored by independent candidate David Hatley (Oct 25-26) showed Blackburn 35 / Green 30 / Hatley 26. Three-way race. Wikipedia overview listed nominees as 'not confirmed'; PollCheck lists Blackburn (R) and Green (D).