The Propaganda FilesTexas
Gina Hinojosa (D) vs. Greg Abbott (R) · Incumbent: R
Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026
Result: pending
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.
Polling averages
| Average | Margin | As of | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| PollCheck | R+2.6 | 2026-10-30 | Pending |
Latest polls
| Pollster | For | Fielded | Sample | Margin | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | ActiVote | Oct 23-29 | 400 LV | R+4.2 | Pending |
| Quantus Insights | Quantus Insights | Oct 26-28 | 1,221 LV | R+5 | Pending |
| SSRS | CNN | Oct 20-27 | 923 LV | R+2 | Pending |
| YouGov | 254 Labs | Oct 21-26 | 1,000 RV | D+3 | Pending |
| Texas Southern University | WFAA | Oct 21-25 | 2,000 LV | R+3 | Pending |
| YouGov | Univision | Oct 13-21 | 1,000 RV | R+2 | Pending |
Forecasts and odds
| Forecaster | Forecast | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ | R 68% to win (Lean R) | 2026-10-30 |
| PollCheck | Abbott (R) 82% to win; Likely R | 2026-10-30 |
Race ratings
| Rater | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean R | 2026-10-01 |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | 2026-09-04 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | 2026-09-03 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Lean R | 2026-10-30 |