The Propaganda FilesVermont
Amanda Janoo (D) vs. Phil Scott (R) · Incumbent: R
Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026
Result: pending
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.
Polling averages
| Average | Margin | As of | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| PollCheck | R+2.8 | 2026-11-01 | Pending |
Latest polls
| Pollster | For | Fielded | Sample | Margin | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Navigate | State Navigate | Oct 23-25 | 1,752 LV | R+3 | Pending |
| State Navigate | State Navigate | Oct 2-4 | 948 LV | R+3 | Pending |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | UNH Survey Center | Sep 17-21 | 829 LV | D+6 | Pending |
| Braun Research | Vermont Public | Sep 10-21 | 737 LV | R+10 | Pending |
Forecasts and odds
| Forecaster | Forecast | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ | R 93% to win (Likely R) | 2026-10-30 |
| PollCheck | Scott (R) 71% to win; Lean R | 2026-11-01 |
Race ratings
| Rater | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid R | 2026-08-27 |
| Inside Elections | Solid R | 2026-09-04 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | 2026-09-29 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Likely R | 2026-10-30 |