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Midterms 2026
Governor · 2026

Wisconsin

David Crowley (D) vs. Tom Tiffany (R) · Incumbent: open (D)

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026
Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

AverageMarginAs ofMiss
PollCheckD+4.12026-11-01Pending
RealClearPoliticsD+3.52026-10-17Pending
Silver BulletinD+3.62026-10-21Pending
Decision Desk HQD+3.62026-10-17Pending
FiftyPlusOneD+3.72026-10-20Pending
270toWinD+4.02026-10-17Pending

Latest polls

PollsterForFieldedSampleMarginMiss
WickLeague of American WorkersOct 19-231,213 LVD+3Pending
Marquette Law SchoolMarquette UniversityOct 14-22668 LVD+7Pending
YouGovCity Forward Collective / CFC Action FundSep 22-Oct 91,715 AD+4Pending
Z to A ResearchRust Belt RisingSep 28-Oct 1662 LVD+5Pending
Marquette Law SchoolMarquette UniversitySep 16-23692 LVD+3Pending
Marquette Law SchoolMarquette UniversityAug 12-20738 LVD+5Pending

Forecasts and odds

ForecasterForecastAs of
Decision Desk HQD 72% to win (Lean D)2026-10-30
PollCheckCrowley (D) 68% to win; Lean D2026-11-01
Silver BulletinLean D2026-10-23

Race ratings

RaterRatingAs of
Cook Political ReportToss-up2026-10-23
Inside ElectionsToss-up2026-10-15
Sabato's Crystal BallLean D2026-10-22
NBC NewsLean D2026-10-23
Decision Desk HQLean D2026-10-30

Marquette Oct 14-22 RV version: D+3 (818 RV). Tony Evers retiring.

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