Senate · 2026

Alaska

Mary Peltola (D) vs. Dan Sullivan (R) · Incumbent: R

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026

Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

Average	Margin	As of	Miss
270toWin	D+3.5	2026-10-31	Pending
PollCheck	D+2.5	2026-10-31	Pending

Latest polls

Pollster	For	Fielded	Sample	Margin	Miss
Alaska Survey Research	not stated	Oct 26-29	1,326 LV	D+2	Pending
Data for Progress	not stated	Oct 8-16	671 LV	D+2	Pending
InsiderAdvantage	not stated	Oct 9-10	1,200 LV	D+2	Pending
Siena	The New York Times	ended Oct 3	504 LV	D+7	Pending
Alaska Survey Research	not stated	Oct 1-3	1,512 LV	D+2	Pending
Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D)	AARP	Sep 8-11	800 LV	D+6	Pending

Forecasts and odds

Forecaster	Forecast	As of
PollCheck (pollcheck.co.uk)	Peltola 58% to win (rated Toss-up)	2026-10-31
Kalshi	Peltola (D) 71¢; Sullivan (R) 30¢ (contract prices, cents = implied %)	2026-11-01
Polymarket	Peltola 74¢; Sullivan 28¢	2026-11-01

Race ratings

Rater	Rating	As of
Cook Political Report	Toss-up	2026-09-23
Inside Elections	Tilt R	2026-09-17
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Toss-up	2026-09-22
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Leans D (flip) (moved from Toss-up)	2026-10-06

Top-four general with ranked-choice voting; ballot also includes Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (no party listed) and Gerald Heikes (R). Aug 18 top-four primary: Peltola 49.5%, Dan S. Sullivan 41.4%. Poll figures differ between aggregators depending on whether first-round or final-round numbers are used; both noted.