The Propaganda FilesFlorida (special)
Angie Nixon (D) vs. Neil Gillespie (I) vs. Ashley Moody (R) · Incumbent: R
Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026
Result: pending
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.
Polling averages
| Average | Margin | As of | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | R+7.0 | 2026-10-13 | Pending |
| Silver Bulletin | R+6.8 | 2026-10-14 | Pending |
| Decision Desk HQ | R+7.1 | 2026-10-18 | Pending |
Latest polls
| Pollster | For | Fielded | Sample | Margin | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | not stated | Sep 27-Oct 15 | 400 LV | R+6 | Pending |
| MDW Communications | not stated | Oct 4-10 | 2,351 LV | R+6 | Pending |
| Stetson University | not stated | Oct 1-9 | 716 LV | R+11 | Pending |
Forecasts and odds
| Forecaster | Forecast | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Moody (R) 90¢; Nixon (D) 12¢ (contract prices, cents = implied %) | 2026-11-01 |
| Polymarket | Moody 92¢; Nixon 10¢ (last trade) | 2026-11-01 |
Race ratings
| Rater | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid R | 2026-10-06 |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | 2026-10-15 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | 2026-10-06 |