The Propaganda FilesIowa
Josh Turek (D) vs. Ashley Hinson (R) · Incumbent: open (R)
Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026
Result: pending
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.
Polling averages
| Average | Margin | As of | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin | R+1.6 | 2026-10-31 | Pending |
| PollCheck | D+0.5 | 2026-10-31 | Pending |
Latest polls
| Pollster | For | Fielded | Sample | Margin | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | not stated | Oct 28 | 1,020 LV | R+2 | Pending |
| Echelon Insights | NetChoice | Oct 16-23 | 403 LV | D+2 | Pending |
| InsiderAdvantage | not stated | Oct 21-22 | 1,200 LV | R+2 | Pending |
| GS Strategy Group (R) / New River Strategies (D) | The Cook Political Report | Oct 9-13 | 602 LV | D+2 | Pending |
| Marist | Marist Poll | ended Oct 15 | LV | D+3 | Pending |
| SSRS | CNN | ended Oct 8 | LV | R+2 | Pending |
Forecasts and odds
| Forecaster | Forecast | As of |
|---|---|---|
| PollCheck (pollcheck.co.uk) | Hinson 54% to win (rated Toss-up) | 2026-10-31 |
| Kalshi | Turek (D) 44¢; Hinson (R) 57¢ (contract prices, cents = implied %) | 2026-11-01 |
Race ratings
| Rater | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up | 2026-09-23 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt R | 2026-09-17 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | 2026-09-22 |