Senate · 2026

Kansas

Adam Hamilton (D) vs. Roger Marshall (R) · Incumbent: R

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026

Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

Average	Margin	As of	Miss
270toWin	D+3.8	2026-10-31	Pending
PollCheck	D+2.5	2026-10-31	Pending

Latest polls

Pollster	For	Fielded	Sample	Margin	Miss
Emerson College	not stated	ended Oct 30	800 LV	D+4	Pending
Washington Post-Schar School	The Washington Post	ended Oct 30	801 LV	D+9	Pending
SSRS	CNN	ended Oct 29	838 LV	D+4	Pending
InsiderAdvantage	not stated	ended Oct 16	1,200 LV	R+1	Pending
InsiderAdvantage	not stated	ended Oct 11	1,200 LV	D+1	Pending
YouGov	not stated	ended Oct 6	2,253 LV	D+3	Pending

Forecasts and odds

Forecaster	Forecast	As of
PollCheck (pollcheck.co.uk)	Hamilton 60% to win (rated Toss-up)	2026-10-31
Kalshi	Dem 51¢; GOP 50¢ (contract prices, cents = implied %)	2026-11-01

Race ratings

Rater	Rating	As of
Cook Political Report	Lean R	2026-09-23
Inside Elections	Likely R	2026-09-17
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	2026-09-22
Cook Political Report	Toss-up (moved from Lean R)	2026-10-06

Libertarian David Graham also on ballot. Wikipedia's Kansas article was stale (pre-Aug 4 primary) when fetched; nominees taken from Wikipedia's national article and 270toWin.