Senate · 2026

Maine

Troy Jackson (D) vs. Susan Collins (R) · Incumbent: R

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026

Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

Average	Margin	As of	Miss
270toWin	D+3.6	2026-10-31	Pending
PollCheck	D+1.9	2026-10-31	Pending

Latest polls

Pollster	For	Fielded	Sample	Margin	Miss
Data for Progress	Data for Progress (no sponsor listed)	Oct 23-27	652 LV	D+5	Pending
SSRS	CNN	Oct 20-26	783 LV	D+4	Pending
Marist	Marist Poll (no sponsor listed)	Oct 22-25	LV (size not listed)	D+2	Pending
Trafalgar Group	Trafalgar Group (no sponsor listed)	Oct 21-23	1,077 LV	Tie	Pending
Echelon Insights	NetChoice	Oct 16-23	413 LV	D+7	Pending
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Co. Research (R)	Fox News	Oct 16-20	1,514 LV	Tie	Pending

Forecasts and odds

Forecaster	Forecast	As of
PollCheck (pollcheck.co.uk)	Jackson 56% to win (rated Toss-up)	2026-10-31
Kalshi	Jackson (D) 68¢; Collins (R) 33¢ (contract prices, cents = implied %)	2026-11-01

Race ratings

Rater	Rating	As of
Cook Political Report	Toss-up	2026-09-23
Inside Elections	Toss-up	2026-09-17
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Toss-up	2026-09-22

Democratic nominee Graham Platner (won June 9 primary, 72.1%) withdrew July 8-10, 2026 after a sexual assault allegation he denied; Troy Jackson was nominated at a July 25 convention (566-5). Ratings are from Wikipedia's national table (Sep columns); Maine state article showed older values (e.g., Inside Elections Tilt R, Aug 6). Other polls on 270toWin: Fox News ended 10/22 Jackson 49 Collins 49; InsiderAdvantage 10/16 49-47; Suffolk 10/14 49-47.