Senate · 2026

Michigan

Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R) · Incumbent: open (D)

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026

Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

Average	Margin	As of	Miss
270toWin	D+5.5	2026-10-31	Pending
PollCheck	D+4.0	2026-10-31	Pending

Latest polls

Pollster	For	Fielded	Sample	Margin	Miss
Data for Progress	not stated	ended Oct 30	622 LV	D+4	Pending
Michigan State University	not stated	ended Oct 29	1,383 LV	D+8	Pending
SSRS	CNN	ended Oct 29	768 LV	D+7	Pending
Mitchell Research	not stated	ended Oct 28	636 LV	D+7	Pending
Glengariff Group	not stated	ended Oct 27	600 LV	D+6	Pending
Marist	Marist Poll	ended Oct 21	1,185 LV	D+2	Pending

Forecasts and odds

Forecaster	Forecast	As of
PollCheck (pollcheck.co.uk)	El-Sayed 74% to win (rated Lean D)	2026-10-31
Kalshi	El-Sayed (D) 76¢; Rogers (R) 25¢ (contract prices, cents = implied %)	2026-11-01

Race ratings

Rater	Rating	As of
Cook Political Report	Toss-up	2026-09-23
Inside Elections	Toss-up	2026-09-17
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	2026-09-22

Open seat (Gary Peters retiring). El-Sayed won Aug 4 Democratic primary 48.45% to Haley Stevens 47.55%. Rogers unopposed after Bernadette Smith disqualified. Other 270toWin polls: MSU ended 10/26 48-46; InsiderAdvantage 10/23 47-46.