Senate · 2026

Minnesota

Peggy Flanagan (D) vs. Michele Tafoya (R) · Incumbent: open (D)

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026

Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

Average	Margin	As of	Miss
270toWin	D+6.0	2026-10-31	Pending
PollCheck	D+6.2	2026-10-31	Pending

Latest polls

Pollster	For	Fielded	Sample	Margin	Miss
Siena	The New York Times	ended Oct 28	752 LV	D+14	Pending
Trafalgar Group	not stated	ended Oct 17	1,079 LV	D+3	Pending
SurveyUSA	KSTP (linked)	ended Oct 14	718 LV	D+3	Pending
Mason-Dixon	Star Tribune (linked)	ended Oct 12	800 LV	D+4	Pending
GQR	not stated	ended Oct 9	800 LV	D+8	Pending
Morning Consult	The Daily Agenda (linked)	ended Oct 9	1,000 RV	D+4	Pending

Forecasts and odds

Forecaster	Forecast	As of
PollCheck (pollcheck.co.uk)	Flanagan 81% to win (rated Likely D)	2026-10-31
Kalshi	Flanagan (D) 90.8¢; Tafoya (R) 9.6¢ (contract prices, cents = implied %)	2026-11-01
Polymarket	Flanagan 93¢; Tafoya 8¢	2026-11-01

Race ratings

Rater	Rating	As of
Cook Political Report	Likely D	2026-09-23
Inside Elections	Likely D	2026-09-17
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	2026-09-22

Open seat (Tina Smith retiring). Cook/IE/Sabato all Likely D (Sep), RCP listed Toss-up. Sponsors per 270toWin link targets. Independent Marisa Simonetti also listed.