Senate · 2026

Nebraska

Dan Osborn (I) vs. Pete Ricketts (R) · Incumbent: R

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026

Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

Average	Margin	As of	Miss
270toWin	R+2.3	2026-10-31	Pending
PollCheck	R+1.5	2026-10-31	Pending

Latest polls

Pollster	For	Fielded	Sample	Margin	Miss
Siena	The New York Times	Oct 23-29	809 LV	R+6	Pending
Echelon Insights	NetChoice	Oct 16-23	407 LV	R+1	Pending
GBAO	Working Class Majority PAC (supports Osborn)	Oct 18-22	800 LV	I+1	Pending
Impact Research	Osborn campaign	Oct 14-20	600 LV	R+2	Pending
Concord Public Opinion Partners	Education Reform Now Advocacy	Oct 15-18	500 LV	I+7	Pending
National Public Affairs	not stated	Oct 15-18	598 LV	R+3	Pending

Forecasts and odds

Forecaster	Forecast	As of
PollCheck (pollcheck.co.uk)	Ricketts 67% to win (rated Lean R)	2026-10-31
Kalshi	Osborn (I) 26¢; Ricketts (R) 75¢ (contract prices, cents = implied %)	2026-11-01
Polymarket	Ricketts 74¢; Independent 26¢	2026-11-01

Race ratings

Rater	Rating	As of
Cook Political Report	Likely R	2026-09-23
Inside Elections	Likely R	2026-09-17
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely R	2026-09-22

No Democrat on ballot (Cindy Burbank withdrew, confirmed July 21); independent Dan Osborn endorsed by Nebraska Democratic Party. Margins use 'I+' for Osborn. RCP listed Toss-up.