Senate · 2026

New Hampshire

Chris Pappas (D) vs. John E. Sununu (R) · Incumbent: open (D)

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026

Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

Average	Margin	As of	Miss
270toWin	D+7.3	2026-10-31	Pending
RealClearPolitics	D+6.5	2026-09-27	Pending

Latest polls

Pollster	For	Fielded	Sample	Margin	Miss
UMass Lowell	UMass Lowell	ended Oct 29	600 LV	D+7	Pending
Saint Anselm College	Saint Anselm College	ended Oct 22	1,672 LV	D+7	Pending
National Public Affairs	not stated	ended Oct 20	600 LV	D+7	Pending
Saint Anselm College	AARP (linked page)	ended Oct 6	1,042 LV	D+7	Pending
YouGov	not stated	ended Oct 6	1,519 LV	D+8	Pending
Trafalgar Group	not stated	ended Sep 27	1,082 LV	D+6	Pending

Forecasts and odds

Forecaster	Forecast	As of
Kalshi	Pappas (D) 92.8¢; Sununu (R) 7.8¢ (contract prices, cents = implied %)	2026-11-01
Polymarket	Pappas (D) 94¢; Sununu (R) 6¢ (last trade)	2026-11-01

Race ratings

Rater	Rating	As of
Cook Political Report	Toss-up	2026-09-23
Inside Elections	Toss-up	2026-09-17
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	2026-09-22
Cook Political Report	Toss-up (moved from Lean D)	2026-09-16

Open seat (Jeanne Shaheen retiring). Cook moved race from Lean D to Toss-up (reported by The Washington Post on Bluesky, Sep 16, 2026; Wikipedia table lists Cook Toss-up as of Sep 23). Primaries Sep 8: Pappas 65.0%, Sununu 68.4% (over Scott Brown).