Senate · 2026

Ohio (special)

Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R) · Incumbent: R

Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026

Result: pending

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.

Polling averages

Average	Margin	As of	Miss
270toWin	D+4.0	2026-10-31	Pending
PollCheck	D+3.3	2026-10-31	Pending
RealClearPolitics	D+3.1	2026-10-08	Pending
Silver Bulletin	D+4.3	2026-10-08	Pending

Latest polls

Pollster	For	Fielded	Sample	Margin	Miss
Suffolk University	not stated	Oct 21-26	500 LV	D+3	Pending
Echelon Insights	NetChoice	Oct 16-23	508 LV	Tie	Pending
InsiderAdvantage	not stated	Oct 21-22	1,200 LV	D+3	Pending
New River Strategies / GS Strategy Group	The Cook Political Report	ended Oct 21	959 LV	D+6	Pending
Marist	Marist Poll	ended Oct 20	1,176 LV	D+4	Pending
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Co. Research (R)	Fox News	Oct 15-19	1,592 LV	D+5	Pending

Forecasts and odds

Forecaster	Forecast	As of
PollCheck (pollcheck.co.uk)	Brown 68% to win (rated Lean D)	2026-10-31
Kalshi	Brown (D) 72¢; Husted (R) 30¢ (contract prices, cents = implied %)	2026-11-01

Race ratings

Rater	Rating	As of
Cook Political Report	Toss-up	2026-10-06
Inside Elections	Toss-up	2026-10-01
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Toss-up	2026-10-06

Special election for the remainder of JD Vance's term; Husted appointed. Also on ballot: Greg Levy (I), Bill/William Redpath (Libertarian). Other recent polls: RedBox Research for A Fight Worth Having (Dem-aligned super PAC) Oct 20-23, 2,998 LV, Brown 47 Husted 44; Verasight/VoteHub Oct 1-20, 531 LV, 48-44; ActiVote ended 10/18 50-50; Bowling Green State ended 10/16 48-42; CNN/SSRS ended 10/08 49-43.