The Propaganda FilesSouth Carolina
Annie Andrews (D) vs. Darline Graham (R) · Incumbent: R
Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026
Result: pending
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.
Polling averages
| Average | Margin | As of | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin | R+2.4 | 2026-10-31 | Pending |
| PollCheck | R+1.5 | 2026-10-31 | Pending |
Latest polls
| Pollster | For | Fielded | Sample | Margin | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patinkin Research Strategies (D) | not stated | Oct 27-29 | 500 LV | D+5 | Pending |
| Siena | The New York Times | Oct 19-26 | 707 LV | Tie | Pending |
| Targoz Market Research | South Carolina Policy Council (270toWin links Fox Carolina) | Oct 16-25 | 895 LV | R+1 | Pending |
| The Citadel | not stated | Oct 14-25 | 890 LV | R+4 | Pending |
| East Carolina University | not stated | Oct 19-24 | 955 LV | R+4 | Pending |
| Impact Research (D) | Fresh Start SC (super PAC supporting Andrews) | Oct 15-21 | 800 LV | D+1 | Pending |
Forecasts and odds
| Forecaster | Forecast | As of |
|---|---|---|
| PollCheck (pollcheck.co.uk) | Graham 67% to win (rated Lean R) | 2026-10-31 |
| Kalshi | Andrews (D) 28¢; Graham (R) 73¢ (contract prices, cents = implied %) | 2026-11-01 |
Race ratings
| Rater | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Likely R | 2026-09-23 |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | 2026-09-17 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | 2026-09-22 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R (moved from Safe R) | 2026-10-06 |