The Propaganda FilesTexas
James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R) · Incumbent: open (R)
Recorded before the vote · November 1, 2026
Result: pending
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3. The actual margin will be posted here beside every prediction, with how far each one missed and in which direction.
Polling averages
| Average | Margin | As of | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| PollCheck | D+2.7 | 2026-10-31 | Pending |
Latest polls
| Pollster | For | Fielded | Sample | Margin | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KStrat | not stated | Oct 27-30 | 900 LV | D+3 | Pending |
| Quantus Insights | not stated | Oct 26-28 | 1,221 LV | R+1 | Pending |
| SSRS | CNN | Oct 20-27 | 923 LV | D+6 | Pending |
| Data for Progress | not stated | Oct 23-26 | 712 LV | D+4 | Pending |
| YouGov | 254 Labs | Oct 21-26 | 1,000 RV | D+8 | Pending |
| Texas Southern University | not stated | Oct 21-25 | 2,000 LV | D+2 | Pending |
Forecasts and odds
| Forecaster | Forecast | As of |
|---|---|---|
| PollCheck (pollcheck.co.uk) | Talarico 65% to win (rated Lean D) | 2026-10-31 |
| Kalshi | Talarico (D) 70¢; Paxton (R) 32¢ (contract prices, cents = implied %) | 2026-11-01 |
Race ratings
| Rater | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up | 2026-09-23 |
| Inside Elections | Lean R | 2026-09-17 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | 2026-09-22 |